Brussels, 17 April 2020

On the 17th of April, DG TRADE has published the results of their in-house analysis regarding the expected reduction of international trade as a consequence of the COVID-19 outbreak.

DG TRADE used the predicted GDP reductions caused by the COVID crisis to estimate the impact on global trade. They acknowledge that – since the Covid-19 crisis is of an unprecedented nature and very volatile – their results are subject to a high degree of uncertainty.

DG Trade estimates that in 2020, global trade will decrease by 9.7%. In Europe, extra-EU exports will see a reduction of 9.2%, while imports from outside the EU will fall by 8.8%. In absolute terms, this amounts to a decline in exports of EUR 280 billion and extra-EU imports will shrink by EUR 240 billion.

Given the current uncertainty surrounding COVID-19 and its economic consequences, DG TRADE will publish new Trade Projections in May.